It often seems like there is a Bitcoin mafia who get upset if someone says something bad about Bitcoin. This is a known bug in our operating system, and we have designed some parts of our society to protect us against it. Mr. Money Mustache Jay Holden I just recently read that someone in metro Vancouver Canada liquidated $100,000 worth of their retirement savings and used that money to purchase servers for bitcoin mining. Their values float vs the dollar and the end goal is to trade them for dollars. When everyone hypes something as the solution for everything it is going to be bad. Also true. The fact that Mr Money Mustache, one of THE most influential FIRE movement supporters, has made a post on itseeing how many financially illiterate people are out there is mind boggling. In that forest there are old bricks. I have no issue with the block chain. Hurry! I regularly visit flip this home seminars just to network with people who leverage all their credit to gamble on an endeavor they have no experience with. (like ATMs were supposed to replace Tellers years ago *eye roll*) And Bitcoin is replacing the banking system? Undoubtedly the bubble will burst or mining difficulty will increase, but Ill be able to sell this supercomputer to some nerd play World of War Craft on. In the field of personal wealth, this means walking your children past the idling lineup of your neighbors Mercedes SUVs, over the snowy grass and up to the door of the school and being confident that you are doing the right thing. I dont know if stock prices will go down. Stefan Brand positive change I would say, the world is getting smaller) changes is because it makes things easier. This is the second highest cyclically-adjusted PE ratio in recorded history: Priced in gold, it is the third largest stock bubble in recorded history: http://pricedingold.com/charts/SP500-1880.pdf. http://whattomine.com/ Your fundamental misunderstanding is contained in your statement that Bitcoin has no inherent value, but nothing has inherent value! Yeah, I was thinking along these lines when I realized that there is no way I would short bitcoin even if I could (too much chance of prices continuing to skyrocket until I was forced to cut my losses). Technology is always the game changer. This black one here is only $1,000,000,000,000,000. I couldnt find anything indicating countries are using bitcoin as a reserve currency. Also, bitcoin lacks value in Kenya. Still no fundamentals. You could just hold a fraction and still see it grow with time, much faster than most other investment avenues available today. I saw a few currencies try out Proof of Stake, like Ark, where the holders of the currency choose who they want to do the mining. I have stocks I purchased at the peak and stocks I purchased at the bottom of the valleys. Good comments Jon. You, the skeptic will be holding straw because you were too stubborn with your ideals to change. Im only a mediocre computer scientist. The second point is also critical: Bitcoin is only valuable if it truly becomes a critical world currency. The alternative is front-loading energy consumption in maintaining a currency with predictable fundamentals on top of which society can run. First: cryptocurrencies have not demonstrated lack of manipulation. Closer to 85 years than 40. January 5, 2018, 8:29 pm. Take a look at the German Mark after WW1. Im just curious what your motivations are for all your comments. Bitcoin has very little potential for the long term. South Koreans are NOT moving all their currency in to Bitcoins. In short the author is saying that while some elements of the populous are spuiking the benefits of cryptocurrencies they have not be adopted by broader society except for the purpose of speculation. January 2, 2018, 9:01 pm. Started by kayvent. BTC wont be the winner but with over 1300 coins the winner has likely been created. How can people who are so good about thinking outside the box when it comes to retirement, are so bad at thinking outside the box when it comes to new technologies? If you can afford to lose the $500K and want to let it ride, go for it. The other argument for Bitcoins value is that there will only ever be 21 million of them, and they will eventually replace all other world currencies, or at least become the new gold, so the fundamental value is either the entire worlds GDP or at least the total value of all gold, divided by 21 million. Full anonymity and government evasion will not be one of its features. GPU mining is dead. Nathanael Why Bitcoin is Stupid (Don't Put All Your Eggs In One Basket?) If you were setting up your portfolio from scratch today, would you buy $500K of GBTC with it? Will it get me my money faster? And now in 2017, we sit and discuss how much better a world we have after the whole event. In stating that humans have never had a chance to own their own money you have hit on the essential problem with bitcoin and any other monetary alternative. Interesting article, with some great points. Also, not all crypto currencies use PoW to mine / verify transactions. Amazon has a stated strategy of no profithow does one price that? What are you doing arguing with strangers on the Internet then, my friend? You are correct about your overall analysis: Bitcoin is indeed silly as a store of value from current prices because the number of insanely secure blockchains can always be increased by 1. As for your other comment, no sir, no amount of corruption is tolerable if you have the choice to get rid of it! Over 3.5 billion people have no internet access; I am sure this is true as I thoroughly researched it for a chapter I published in a book this year. Then you have to pay a ton of interest to borrow it, and be lucky with the timing. If you MUST put way too much money in bitcoins, you need your own offline, hardware wallet. January 5, 2018, 12:35 pm. You invested in GBTC? Thats pretty much it. At the moment, theyre incredibly volatile compared to the monetary systems of the developed world. The Vigilante Blockchain isnt just a software protocol, the algorithm guiding it doesnt have to be open source, some cryptoassets pay the miners for securing the network through concepts such as proof of stake and delegated byzantine fault tolerance, some networks support decentralized applications with actual potential and have intrinsic value. Read your history, it happens occasionally. You respond with an implied personal insult. ): the Problem with calling Bitcoin a Ponzi Scheme. Again, only in nominal terms. If he was suggesting Bonds or FOREX trading you could accuse him of investing in fiat. No where have I read South Koreans advocating replacing their currency with a Crypto equivalent. (Again, you also cant go to space without it, or use your computer, but we can set that aside for the moment. Vijay how can it be a useful currency without a relatively stable value? China is also a leader in renewables space. Finally, nothing becomes a good investment just because its been going up in price lately., If you disagree with me on that point, the price of my fingernails has just increased by 70,000% and they are now $70,000 per bag. Bitcoin is almost as irrational from current prices as are US stocks. MMM deservedly makes a fortune off this website, and stirring the Bitcoin pot will surely drive more traffic to keep blog profits rolling in. Some of my conversations with him inspired the research in this article. And pray blurt out as to why it is bad equivocation? After all, you could make the same argument about Mr. Money Mustachesfingernail clippings: they may have no intrinsic value, but at least they are in limited supplyso lets use them as the new world currency! While silver and copper has been used as a form of money (notably imperial China, it was a silver based society with gold used as a high currency), golds special attributes has always been seen as a form of value storage and trusted trade medium. . Mr. Money Mustache Early Retirement through Badassity Start Here About Random MMM Recommends Forum MMM Classics Mr. Money Mustache View: Fancy Magazine | Classic Blog Welcome New Readers! The problem with most folks here is, if you really want to know Bitcoin you have to Know Computing to really appreciate what this is all about. Even if they made a hundred trillion dollars next year, you wouldnt see any of it unless you sold your stock to someone willing to pay a higher price for it (or they started paying dividends). January 4, 2018, 2:23 pm. Nothing is 100% guaranteed in life. Keep plenty for yourself. Basically Mr. Money Mustache seems to not see anything beyond the Federal Reserve and the toilet paper this private bank of the elite churns out! The NEW, BEST way to absorb all of this monetary wisdom is to subscribe to the newsletter and boot camp using the boxes to the right -> OK Vijay but then why do you and others get so angry when some of us say we dont want to invest in it? The short answer is they can do nothing about it! The unbanked people can hold actual coins in their hands, but they cannot trade in cryptocurrency at all. We also both wear wedding rings made of gold and are quite happier with them than if they were made of copper or tin or lead or nickel or mercury. And verify. That could be securely moving value around, but could be many other things. An investment is something that has intrinsic value that is, it would be worth owning from a financial perspective,even if you could never sell it. That's right -- it really does not matter (to me) why they split up. The poorest in Sub-Saharan Africa earns the same money that you sitting in Manhattan, NY do. That means an implied 100% cash-on-cash return every year. A blockchain without an inbuilt cryptocurrency is yet to prove itself as viable and secure. You know things arent a good investment when there are Bitcoin ATMs at bars. He is skeptical of anything that has a tinge of a get rich quick scheme. When someone has a 180 degree different opinion to you, just discredit them eh? Theres illegal activity in all its shapes and forms (ie. That is when we are talking equality and progress for all! Perhaps its the utter lack of any regulation that baffles me, because blockchain I do kinda get, which is why I did put some money into IBM (yes, very un-Mustachian) after reading about their auto-encryption developments and its applicability in protecting personal info and consumer data. Not everyone agrees, but it cannot, unlike cryptos, be regarded as stupid. I think the far greater chance is your comment will be the joke. January 3, 2018, 9:04 pm. Also no one here is talking about who owns majority bitcoins besides sathoshi,, I guess its Jihan wu. Now the ball has reached proportions where it could blow up anytime, and people in this forum are talking about the small change like the bubble and P/E ratio in the stock market. Priced in gold, they are still down more than 60%. However, governments and institutions are investigating the uses of some platforms, like Ethereum: https://globalnews.ca/news/3977745/ethereum-blockchain-canada-nrc/. Hell isnt that why we are here in the first place? Darn things didnt even pace with inflation. Im interested to see how this plays out. Since when was that a down year? ..why hasnt shutting down bootlegged videos on P2P bittorrent etc been effective? Some people like owning pretty jewelry. Why you ask? While MMM has some terrific points on how Bitcoin transaction costs and electrical costs are astronomical, pandoras box has been opened. How many decades of using toilet paper as a useful medium of exchange are required before you reevaluate your position? Back in its heyday, BTC was incredibly valuable for making monetary transactions (essentially anytime before this recent mania clogged up the blocks). And you dont want it for this purpose anyway after all, do you currentlyhide your money in offshore tax havens and transact your business on black markets? Its diversification. Why would the author call this act stupid? Don't look at prices, look at relative prices. They always do. So instead we are going to own Bitcoins that are so volatile that you will go insane? Hence, he advocates value investing not speculation. Are you sure Amazon pays someone in unusable (to them) gift cards? And wasnt Apple Pay and all these other card-less apps of paying for goods and services supposed to replace carrying around a physical wallet and/or cash? Check out RaiBlocks and other DAG-based coins. Tulips. https://t.co/wfi8XTq77s" Episode 497: Why Bitcoin is Stupid - 2 by Mr. Money Mustache. Even if you are the only one in the room willing to do it. Pretty weak overall. Mark states he has done this study with no references to any data as to how he arrived at such a conclusion. LennStar Your Mom and Pop will surely use fiat paper, but probably not you in your later life, and certainly not your kids. farmecologist In a practical sense, this . I'm a software engineer and my career was in cryptography and network security. A stock is not a ticker symbol; it is a stake in an underlying business. Sorry for commenting again but the farms will not give you money or distribute it to those who cannot afford. Any efficiency brought to commerce through blockchain technology are very likely to show up as increased dividends from index funds. if you over leverage yourself in any of these you can find yourself in trouble. Holy Shit! is the only reasonable reaction. Blockchain (you are the first person I read who thinks the jury is still out on blockchain (I agree)) takes more and more energy as it grows. Mr. MMM talking about herd mentality should take a look at their own followers and himself. Change the company name to include the word blockchain, and explain that youre pivoting from [USEFUL_WIDGET] to exploration of and investment in opportunities that leverage the benefits of blockchain technology. If not, why when you say that it will be worth 10trillion in a couple of years. (a Case Study), https://medium.com/p/81f5ffa42deb?source=linkShare-6c666494704c-1516693614, https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/, https://globalnews.ca/news/3977745/ethereum-blockchain-canada-nrc/, https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin_ponzi/, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134745-bitcoins-path-1-million-bubble-bursting-anytime-soon, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-zIbVEjVpQ, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg, https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/btc?HashingPower=190&HashingUnit=MH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1293&CostPerkWh=0.12, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania, http://contrarianedge.com/2017/12/01/bitcoin-millennials-fake-gold/, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States. One reason why everyone is piling money into BTC and other crypto might be because the stock market is way too expensive right now. Retweeted. Peter Mevoin Dan, I am not angry when someone says they dont want to invest in it. Bitcoins can be traced, your fingernails cant. VTSAX returned over 22% last year. Heres a great description of the whole scene by Chain CEO Adam Ludwin. You call it trust. Bitmains S9 efficiency is at ~0.1 J/GHs. Consensus over its value. Humanity deserves an alternative to government (aka the financial elite) controlled money. Publicly verifiable voting as well, when the chains are worth trillions. Its a complete rip off. So just relax, lean into it, and grow rich with me. 2) Prices rise so much that earnings increase while stock prices remain the same. There is a very good chance that this article will be the butt of jokes 5 years down the road, when the toilet paper fiat currencies are all passe! Basic Economics Vijay. It is, in other words, a valid store of value with properties that support it as a choice. Its a vicious cycle, but Ive just got to bite the bullet instead of going Wah, it was $2 cheaper a week ago.. Mr. Money Mustache It stays below the prior high for decade at least, sometimes forever. Talk of being blissfully ignorant! So in order to have immutability, we need decentralization. No govt is just going to let the ability to control their economy be taken away from them. January 4, 2018, 2:35 pm. BURST ( http://burst-coin.org ) as an example uses PoC (Proof of Capacity). Maybe the currencies will be useful to, but the really useful ones will be the ones designed for some purpose. All govermnents will not sit idly by and loose all their power worldwide. I can leave the country with it if the government ever gets out of hand (I cant do that with gold or cash since it will likely be confiscated or banks be frozen). A good analogy is a life raft on the ocean vs an aircraft carrier. Dont know if youve seen JP Searss satire of Bitcoin but I think you might appreciate it. Warren Buffett explained the difference between investing in Bitcoin versus in Coca-Cola was what cemented it for me. MMM has been writing quality PF content for years. It is 14 January, 2021 when I am writing this. Max Your Freedom Feel free to throw in some early questions. Bitcoin 2.0 is already here, people just dont know it yet. You cannot create more coins than are programmed to ever exist. January 5, 2018, 7:21 pm, *cough* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania. All they can do is to ban and stop the exchanges. Then Ill stick with what works for me now. Also, a currency should not be artificially sparse. What value is there? Could you please tell us what you are invested in and when you got in? The tulip mania was a delusion. Staying on the sidelines unless you have some special knowledge of when exactly the the bubble will pop. I enjoyed this analysis by Aswath Damodaran, a thoughtful investor and Professor at NYU school of business. When contracts cannot be broken nobody needs to oversee contracts. Why not one of the other 1500 cryptocurrencies? Shes allergic to nickel and tin and lead. But, is a stock index worth a CAPE ratio of near 30, meaning it would take 30 years to earn back your initial investment, not counting any loss from inflation? I think its more likely that youre helping launder money acquired in IRS scams and other criminal activity. (based on July 20th blog post) Started by caracarn. Google, Amazon and Facebook came out of it. January 4, 2018, 9:20 am. For me, its just like watching a show that I dont know the ending of yet. Besides, how do you get BTC in the first place? People suffer immensely. It grew to $240k. Mr. Money Mustache talks about his divorce. The real winners of the gold rush were the ones who sold shovels. Its closest to an MLM for me. When the US dropped the gold standard it allowed the government to print paper that we perceive is valuable without any actually commodity to back it. Plus, it costs something like $20 per transaction. Some Alts are even working with the existing banking infrastructure to get them up to speed and are acknowledging the unfeasibility of anonymity (Ripple, Cardano). Mr. Money Mustache is the website and pseudonym of 48-year-old Canadian-born blogger Peter Adeney. I think that the point being missed in all of this is NOT that people want to evade taxes, but that they are being screwed backwards & forwards by the banks (& the tax evaders-in-chief that run them). The underlying value of stocks are tangible assets and value added production activities. Higher energy usage in China means that the nasty, killing coal plants stay online longer. Silicon Valley is out to eat Wall Streets Lunch and this tech will defy all ideas of finance that have come before. Of course, I doubt we are already at the 10%. Hey MMM, how do you plan to stop speculation, why might it be necessary to do so? Doh! . As long as the current monetary scam can be sustained, you are going to get very little traction. Sir, its $0.33 for that pound of bananas. For those of us who live in USA and use the USD for our currency, what does it mean to trust that government, which is currently breaching 19 TRILLION dollars in debt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States) while simultaneously reducing its revenue stream (tax breaks for everyone). 3) Blockchain is good, Bitcoin is bad Cryptocurrency is just one application of blockchain technology. You can still live a good/great life within that system, but the fact remains the debt-based economy is like The Matrix, and we are the batteries that power it. Hes helped thousands of people improve their lives. I even read about these things for fun, with Simon Singhs The Code Book and the Neil Stephenson novel Cryptonomicon being particularly fun shortcuts to pick up some of the workings and the context of cryptography. The pure votality and surge should be a warning for the average investor. An Interview with Matt Cutts: Can the Government grow a Money Mustache? Naturally sentiment plays an important role in BTCs price. by jlcollinsnh 18 Comments. A wisened Mustachian looks for long term, steady gains, and their invested dollars add value to a society the moment they are employed. We are in the beginning of the S curve and it will stabilize just like all other disruptive technology does, Adaptation as currency (this is happening, craigslist accepts Bitcoin, many local shops started accepting, you can even have Mrs. MM get paid by bitcoin on etsy. Its because gold is real money and everything else is a good derivative (and therefore a delusion). For this article, I have set the bar much lower to show you the religious conviction that crypto speculators have. No shame in that, maybe keep an open mind and try to have a discussion where we all learn something. Maybe a couple years from now when the mortgage is paid off and we have some play money/money we can afford to lose. ), but not because they did anything useful or produced any money and value to society,. I always remember one sound arguments on investing that goes something like if they need to over explain the product and their business model, then Im not buying it.. You need some sort of fundamentals, and in bitcoin there are none. January 3, 2018, 7:59 am. Started by myrrh. Gold and tulips and coffee and salt and any other good at a fair price, however, are an entirely different story. I think that the future is virtual currencies and of course the internet in general, just not right now, and absolutely not with any of the 1400+ fakecurrencies out there. Or? Bitcoin CANNOT shelter you, pay dividends nor feed you. I think I found the mistake in your reasoning. Its value statement is the ability to send any amount of money, anywhere in the world, for very cheap, without asking anyones permission, and have the transaction be irreversibly settled within a few minutes. It also helps to have wise, centralized humans (the Federal Reserve system and other central banks) guiding the system. "Find a graph that includes [the. The bidding up of prices in pursuit of speculative riches is not fine. And of course, the purpose of this whole aside is that I want to establish credibility with you, so you will give this article some consideration. There is some behavioral economics at play in dividend policy in that firms that issue dividends generally have a sound, stable business with secure cash flows; the market recognizes that and probably trades the stock at a slight premium, but that does not mean that investing in firms that do not issue dividends constitutes speculating. You are correct to note that Since the late 1990s when Shiller started promoting the CAPE ratio stocks have regularly been in bubble territory. Cryptocurrency at all a show that I dont know it yet is just going to be bad ;. Nasty, killing coal plants stay online longer if mr money mustache bitcoin prices will down! Here is talking about herd mentality should take a look at their own followers and himself over... Are an entirely different story and network security to show up as increased dividends from index funds mistake. Of exchange are required before you reevaluate your position say, the skeptic will be holding straw because you setting! The room willing to do it a Bitcoin mafia who get upset if someone says they dont want let. Is out to eat Wall Streets Lunch and this tech will defy all of... Theres illegal activity in all its shapes and forms ( ie no one here is talking about herd should. 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