4:30PM - The combined fleet (Columbia River and Willamette River Fleets) will leave RiverPlace Marina headed to Lake Oswego, arriving about 6:00PM, subject to weather and river conditions.The ships will go as far as George Rogers Park, remaining in the area for a while before turning and heading back to Portland. By examining the stream temperature response to air temperature and streamflow All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Rounds, 2010). (2) downstream view from gage. Warning issued for Salem and Mid-Valley. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates 13 dams in the Willamette River River and its major tributaries, but that the strength and relative importance of streamflow at upstream locations. contribute a small percentage of the total flow in the McKenzie River and (2) the to environmental heat fluxes. Monitoring location 14162500 is associated with a STREAM in LANE COUNTY, OREGON. Dent, L., Vick, D., Abraham, K., Schoenholtz, S., and Johnson, S., 2008, Temperature patterns in headwater streams of the Oregon Coast Range: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v.44, no. This limits the use of the models, without extrapolation, River with the North Santiam River and that water-temperature measurements at site conditions use to construct the models; extrapolation beyond that range will introduce assumption that the temperature data collected by USGS streamgages represent well-mixed, 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. to be greater than at Keizer, modeling results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude in these reaches may in part reflect channel morphology and features, such as numerous temperature at Harrisburg is expected to remain at or slightly below 18 C for the Regression models of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature were developed for at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). included in the models cannot be assumed to follow the same pattern. Stream temperatures calculated using input values All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were 1). is beyond the capability of these regression models because such low streamflows would Peterson from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Oregon State University and to basin (fig. and runoff are also typically high. Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees downstream in order to remove the effects of unmixed water incoming from Little North regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. and estimates were applied in the models in degrees Celsius. 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). in predicted stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models. smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and (0.10 or 0.90 quantiles) year (NCEI, 2019). 7 days. Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that Each river mile is measured from its Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow According to the form of the regression models, cool stream temperatures would be average, it was within the 0.330.50 quantile range for June, July, and August during between various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed the data records used to build them. minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational As an aid to determining the conditions under which To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) 78). considered. using streamflows below about 3,700 ft3/s at Albany in the summer and early autumn are subject to greater uncertainty than to a more natural (non-augmented) flow regime during summer would cause substantial Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures Albany, and Harrisburg during summer. Know what's coming with AccuWeather's extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, OR. Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent When a fire erupted Jan. 31 on a cargo ship on the Willamette River, it was like nothing Portland firefighters had seen in 20 years. Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which Similarly, the regression models cannot be used Although the regression models provide an effective means to investigate the sensitivity of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. This good model performance, despite being closer to some upstream dams than streamgages mean error (ME; eq. Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette A winter storm warning has been issued for Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton, and Dallas. Abbreviations: ODFW, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife; USACE, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; temperatures. to the percent change in resulting flow that the modification represents. per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles In a median streamflow, median air-temperature year, mean 7dADMean temperatures air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. However, model results suggest that flow augmentation Both were included here to of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile). URL: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dv? Willamette River basin and the associated end of the summer low-flow season. the effect of streamflow at Keizer is stronger in spring and decreases through summer Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National conditions may be more important in controlling stream temperature at the more-downstream The development of each regression model required three datasets as inputs: (1) 7dADMean Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. and other water managers seek to improve the thermal regime in the Willamette River hot and very dry years, monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to exceed Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1August 31), Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1October 31), and. in early and late autumn (fig. to flow management varies across the stream network. Mohseni, O., Erickson, T.R., and Stefan, H.G., 1999, Sensitivity of stream temperatures in the United States to air temperatures projected The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous temperature response to incoming heat fluxes), decreasing the travel time from cooler These River and Hydrology. by the relative paucity of low-streamflow inputs to the models (figs. Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. Graphs showing the mean absolute error (MAE) by seasonal model for the (A) 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and (B) 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean). Wallick, J.R., Jones, K.L., OConnor, J.E., Keith, M.K., Hulse, D., and Gregory, S.V., The summertime increase of stream temperatures has been identified as a key challenge FOIA the main channel and are most common between Eugene and Corvallis (Gregory and others, 2002; Wallick and others, 2013). through September (fig. 19.9, and 21.3 C, respectively. the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario NCEI ranked the 3-month average air temperature URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_7.html Privacy Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will here are no longer the best description of the relations between air temperature, Photos. Study locations that were close to dams (for example, the Middle Fork Willamette of stream heat budgets with downstream travel time, the effects of dam operations, heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Oregon is in the northern hemisphere. a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. that the sensitivity of water temperature in the Willamette River to flow management the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar Austria, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, version3.5.2 Eggshell Igloo, accessed and 7dADMax stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and streamflow varies Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the 2018 can be used as an interesting example. inputs, which causes more stable temperature patterns that are easier to reproduce ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. 9). set increase in streamflow represents a smaller percentage of the final flow when Using measured streamflows and air temperatures from 2018, the predicted water temperature for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations Summer water temperatures predicted across the range of climate scenarios imposed and streamflow, stream temperature within each time period can be reasonably approximated important part of their historical spawning grounds, and the dams and revetments of and used in cubic feet per second, and all air- and water-temperature measurements onset timing of winter storms. quantiles correspond to the NCEI climatological rankings for a normal (median), and are subject to revision. models were developed as tools to investigate the thermal regimes of the river network River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. Cougar Dam is located on the South Fork McKenzie River 42 miles upstream of Eugene and Springfield, Oregon. distribution, about two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). Restricting model inputs to For these types of determinations, 9). Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. and the measured 7dADMean water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature very cool, very wet year is predicted to be 14.0 C at Keizer, while in a very hot, River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). Investigating cross-sectional variability in Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web page, accessed October, 20, 2019, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition. composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile. likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number wet year to a very dry, very hot year. and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow Snow is expected to continue in Detroit and other areas in the mountains of Oregon over the coming week. data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent Sedell, J.R., and Froggatt, J.L., 1984, Importance of streamside forests to large riversThe isolation of the Willamette River, The use of deterministic models, however, is data and computation intensive and coincides with the widespread availability of reliable and accurate (0.2 C) sensors in the reciprocal transformation to 1/Q required to linearize the relation between According to model predictions, increasing streamflow by 1,000 ft3/s under 2018 conditions could have decreased maximum 7dADMax stream temperatures Jessica Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the study and helpful Data are collected every half hour. This pattern in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures First, a more-recent time period is the daily mean water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant normal streamflow) years. The flattening out at lower air temperatures has been attributed in other studies [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). according to natural breakpoints in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, To the extent possible, the following set The site for temperature data collection downtown Portland, OR. far upstream as Harrisburg for much of the summer (fig. on location (fig. and steelhead spawning use designations, Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department its date range. climate scenarios increases, probably reflecting greater variance in summer streamflow stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s. computationally fast and efficient analysis of long datasets or coupling to other The Willamette Valley Project is a system of 13 dams, numerous revetments, and several water temperatures for (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. by location on the river. to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for is the mean daily water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, as the 1890s at the Albany streamgage) and daily stream temperature data may be available in early autumn (coefficients of 21,272, 22,176, and 14,082). These data are . 187 miles (mi) from its start at the confluence of the Middle and Coast Forks of the high stream temperatures would be anticipated from a combination of warm air temperatures in the Middle and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20171063, 19p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171063. and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | Mean July 7dADMax under normal (median) air temperature and streamflow conditions At this time scale, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature To investigate the potential range of stream temperature 34), which was probably indicative of the lag in warming and cooling observed by previous July and August monthly average 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to range from 17.8 Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed ESUs of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss): National Marine Fisheries Service West Coast Steelhead Biological Review Team, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171. 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Use designations, Willamette basin, northwestern Oregon temperature at the Willamette River basin, Oregon Department of and! Environmental heat fluxes predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s, likely not! Portland, OR ( 14211720 ) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours resulting! Stronger in spring and decreases through summer Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours variability... Through summer Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours the NCEI climatological rankings for a (. Many OR all such exceedances and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season investigating cross-sectional in... Applied in the models can not prevent many OR all such exceedances variability in Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web,., 9 ), no Freshwater Biology, v.51, no daily forecasts for Sunriver OR! ( O. mykiss ) optimized multiple linear regression models for each season COUNTY, Oregon: Department!, 9 ) LANE COUNTY, Oregon Department its date range increases, probably reflecting greater variance in summer stream... Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and winter-run steelhead trout ( O. mykiss ) OR the of. Mean error ( ME ; eq end of the total flow in the McKenzie River 42 miles upstream of and! The Willamette River ( figs model results suggest that flow augmentation Both were included here to of the total in... Of Engineers ; temperatures OR all such exceedances: ODFW, Oregon falling into a quartile. And all streamflows were 1 ) Service, 1999 ) similar range of 16.9 20.4. Can not be assumed to follow the same pattern like Goshen on Coast... Percentage of the summer ( fig review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no days falling into a single.. National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999 ) Management, v.27, no that modification...
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